Bowl projections are going pretty well going into the homestretch, with an overall winning percentage of 60%. As we head into the BCS games and the major bowl games that present the most exciting matchups, I thought I’d look at what have been the most disappointing teams for me this bowl season:

ARIZONA STATE

Dennis Erickson’s team opened the Holiday Bowl playing as flat as a two week old bottle of Mountain Dew rolling around the floor board of your car. Though I was never a believer in the idea that Arizona State ever deserved to be mentioned among the elite of college football, I fully expected the Sun Devils to come out and play motivated football against an inconsistent Texas team but my hats off to Mack Brown, who got his guys up for that game and they got embarrassed Arizona State on national television. This season may have been a step forward for the Sun Devil program but giving up 52 points on national television and getting outplayed in every aspect of the game is never good for business.

CENTRAL FLORIDA

I was a big believer in UCF going into the bowl season after watching Kevin Smith, the nation’s leading rusher, slice and dice the Tulsa defense in the Conference USA championship. But they got caught playing Bulldog football. The 10-3 win Mississippi State got in Saturday’s Liberty Bowl is exactly the kind of win Sylvester Croom’s team has gotten all year.  To George O’ Leary’s credit, he tried to go with what got him there, handing the ball to Smith 35 times but Mississippi State clamped down on the run, forcing the Knights to turn to quarterback Kyle Israel. And that’s when things got a little ugly. Israel threw for just 88 yards and three interceptions. You have to give some credit to Sylvester Croom for getting this Mississippi State team, one of the most offensively ugly teams I’ve ever seen, to eight wins. I fully anticipate a return to mediocrity for the Bulldogs in ‘08 but their ‘07 campaign is as good a story as any in college football.

Tim Tebow won the Heisman

Shouldn’t have come to a surprise as anyone. Ever since Dennis Dixon went down against Arizona towards the end of the season (torpedoing the Ducks’ season, his Heisman chances and the Oregon offense), Tebow was my pick to win the award. I agree with ESPN’s Ed Cunningham that this is an award that should be voted on after the bowl season but no one, up until this point, has had been as consistently great as Tebow has. Period. Say what you want about the Gators’ three losses (which this season didn’t put a BCS bowl that far out of reach), Tebow was the reason that team won nine games this season. I thought Darren McFadden was completely undeserving of the award given his mid-season slump and then spectacular last two games. More deserving of a chance to New York than McFadden and Mizzou QB Chase Daniel was Central Florida’s Kevin Smith who, after the Knights Liberty Bowl game against Mississippi State, could put together the greatest season by any college running back ever. Despite his 2,400 yards, Smith was never mentioned in connection with the Heisman, which I think is criminal. But congrats to Tebow who becomes the third Gator to win the Heisman and the first since Destin’s Danny Wuerffel took home the prize in 1996.

The Patriots won’t lose this year

The first half of yesterday’s Steelers/Patriots game was an entertained as I’ve been watching the NFL since.. well, since the Patriots/Colts or the Patriots/Ravens last Monday night. Make no mistake, this team is beatable but none of the teams they play for the rest of the year have the means to exploit their weaknesses. The Steelers, Ravens and Colts have all found ways to take the Pats to the wire but the team always finds a way to create one or two turnovers and win late. Yesterday’s game was no exception. Struggling to stop the Steelers offense (whose strategy was conservative to say the least), the Patriots pulled out the throwback pass and broke the Steelers back. The team never recovered from that touchdown in the third quarter and the league’s only unbeaten team cruised to an easy victory. There are a couple areas of concern if you’re a Patriot fan. One is dropped passes. What I’ve seen when watching the Patriots the last two weeks is tight end Benjamin Watson, the wildly, grossly overrated Wes Welker and Randy Moss all routinely drop catchable balls, particularly in the red zone. Against a better team, that could be an issue. Two, the Patriots defense is especially weak at the corners. The linebacking corps of the Patriots is pretty good in coverage and isn’t giving up a lot underneath but Ellis Hobbs and James Sanders are hardly players without exploitable weaknesses. If yesterday’s game proved nothing it’s that you can’t be afraid to take shots downfield against this Patriot defense and the Steelers were. The last game of the season, one that many of us will never seen because it’s on NFL Network, could be a good one. The Giants have a great pass rush with Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora coming off the edge but they are weak at corner and even weaker at safety and not giving Tom Brady time to sit in the pocket and throw has been huge for success against this Patriot offense. The Giants have big play wide receivers with Plaxico Burress but I wonder about Eli Manning’s ability to hold up under pressure and the mental toughness of the Giants as a whole.

Larry Bird and Jamaal Tinsley should both be on the next flight out of Indianapolis

For those of you who haven’t heard, Pacers point guard Jamaal Tinsley has been involved in yet another off-the-court incident involving a late night, a nightclub and guns. This time, it appears that the Pacers point guard had his Rolls Royce sprayed with assault rifle fire after an argument at an Indianapolis nightclub at three in the morning. Tinsley was not hurt but the Pacers equipment manager was shot in both elbows. Again, the Pacers are reprimanding Tinsley for being out so late and using bad judgment and putting himself in harm’s way but how many times will the team stand behind this knucklehead while he continue to embarrass himself, his team, his league and the community? It’s time to cut him loose. Now onto Larry Legend. When will he and team president Donnie Walsh be held accountable for what this team has become? Upon Bird’s arrival he has made questionable, borderline awful personnel moves and took a perennial playoff team, brought in guys with questionable character and turned it into the 2007 version of the Portland Jailblazers. In a city that has a team like the Indianapolis Colts, the community will not continue to support a team that conducts themselves as poorly off and on the court as this one does and it’s time that Larry be shown the door for bringing in, and standing behind, guys like Marquis Daniels, Stephen Jackson and Jamaal Tinsley.

Saturday, Dec. 29 - AutoZone Liberty Bowl

UCF vs. Mississippi State 

There may not be a better story in all of college football this year than the success of Slyvester Croom at Mississippi State. After being planted very firmly on the hot seat, Croom lead the Bulldogs to an 8-4 record with wins against Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky. As good as that story is, I can’t imagine they have what it takes to beat George O’Leary’s UCF Knights. UCF fans better enjoy watching running back Kevin Smith, the nation’s leading rusher, while they can because he won’t be running around Orlando for very much longer. What impresses me most about Smith, besides the fact that he’s averaging nearly 200 yards a game rushing, is his patience with the football. He has tremendous feet and waits for his line to open holes and cutback lanes, which they often do and he sees the field as good as any back in the nation. For my money, Kevin Smith is an exponentially better running back than Darren McFadden and deserves to be in New York this weekend as much as anyone. What I like about UCF is that as potent as they are on offense, their defense isn’t anything to shirk at either. They have a great potent cover corner in Joe Burnett, who led Conference USA in interceptions and pretty good pair of pass rushers in Bruce Miller and Leger Douzable. Pair UCF’s terrific ground game with a ball-hawking defense against a Mississippi State game with a mediocre defense and a dreadful offense and you’ve got the makings for a blow out. I’ll take the UCF in Kevin Smith’s coming out party.

Saturday, Dec. 29 - Valero Alamo Bowl 

Penn State vs. Texas A&M

Coming into the year, everyone and their brother was trumpeting Penn State as a potential Big Ten dark horse. They claimed quarterback Anthony Morelli had improved in the off-season and the Nittany Lions were ready to stake their claim as the Big Ten’s best. Not so fast, my friend.  The defense, led by corner Jeff King and linebacker Dan Connor, who led the Big Ten in tackles with 136, held up their end of the bargain, finishing second in the conference in total defense. The offense, and the “improved” Morelli struggled — again. Morelli showed the same poor judgement in the pocket, failed to get the ball into the hands of receivers Deon Butler and Derrick Williams and the team failed to beat Michigan and Ohio State again. For Texas A&M, a year of tremendous promise was upset by scandal when it was reported that Dennis Franchione was giving out inside information to boosters who paid thousands of dollars for a special newsletter. Franchione was later fired (and replaced by former Packers coach Mike Sherman) and defensive coordinator Gary Darrell will coach the Aggies in the bowl game. Offensively, Texas A&M has been one of the most disappointing teams in America. The Aggies returned a trio of the nation’s best skill players in quarterback Stephen McGee and running backs Javorski Lane and Mike Goodson. Still, A&M finished ninth in the Big 12 in total offense, a number that won’t be at all helped by going out against one of the nation’s best defensive units.  I’ll take Penn State in this one.. ugly.

Sunday, Dec. 30 - PetroSun Independence Bowl

Alabama vs. Colorado 

Two once-proud programs clash in Shreveport, La. in the Independence Bowl  and this game is a total toss-up. Both of these teams have shown flashes of re-birth this season — Alabama’s nail-biter over Arkansas and Colorado’s thriller against Oklahoma —  and have also been disappointing at times. For Dan Hawkins’ Buffs, the key to the game will be getting pressure on John Parker Wilson, who wilts like basil when the pocket collapses and getting as many people as it takes to cover receiver D.J. Hall. Nick Saban will have to make sure Wilson always knows where Colorado linebacker Jordan Dizon is lined up. The Buffs’ senior linebacker led the Big 12 with 149 tackles. Offensively, Colorado would do well to get tailback Hugh Charles 20-30 touches in this game and try to control the tempo of the game. Letting Cody Hawkins throw the ball against Simeon Castille and Rashad Johnson, who led the SEC in interceptions, could be Colorado’s downfall in this contest. Nick Saban knows that there is a lot riding on this game for Alabama. After losing all of its big games this year, including another loss to Auburn, and an embarrassing home loss to Louisiana-Monroe, a loss in their bowl game to Colorado may squelch whatever enthusiasm still remains in Tuscaloosa about Alabama football. I’ll take the Crimson Tide in this one, there is simply too much at stake for Nick Saban.

So far, I am batting two-for-two on my picks today. Central Florida and Central Michigan both won pretty big but my loyalty to Boston College may cost me as Sean Glennon just threw a touchdown pass to put the Hokies on top with about seven minutes left in the game. We will see if Matt Ryan can break Hokie hearts two times in a single season.

Tennessee just scored quickly while sporting what I can only describe as dreamsicle-colored uniforms.

UPDATE - 3:34 Lightning will not strike twice for Boston College as Matt Ryan throws a heartbreaking interception deep in Virginia Tech territory with two minutes left. The Eagles got the ball back with 30 seconds left but Xavier Adibi picked off a batted ball and took it to the house for six. The Bottom Line on Championship Saturday, 2-1.

UPDATE - 6:41 Well I could be wrong but LSU looks like they have survived a pre-game full of rumors that their coach is leaving to win the SEC Championship. I wonder where, in the spectrum of hated athletes at Tennessee, Erik Ainge falls after basically losing the ballgame for the Vols tonight. Twice, Ainge failed to read the defenders before throwing the ball and twice the Tigers defense made him pay. For me, this loss goes back to what I believed early this season about Tennessee – they have absolutely zero big play possibilities on that offense, opting instead to nickel and dime their way down the field and tonight two of those plays really cost them the conference championship. Ainge just has to see Daryl Beckwith underneath on that last interception. That turnover is inexcusable. The Bottom Line on Championship Saturday, 3-1.

UPDATE - 7:45 If you like two teams just blowing each other up, I hope you are watching the Big 12 Championship right now. Missouri and Oklahoma have been trading blows for most of the first quarter and the winner of this game could turn out to be the team with the most starters still conscious. I like the way Oklahoma is playing on defense. Nothing that Missouri has tried on offense so far has been even remotely successful. We could be in for a good one. Oh and for the record, Missouri wide receiver Jeremy Maclin is as fast as any player I have seen this year. He is so explosive. If Mizzou wins this game, it will be on the legs of Jeremy Maclin.

UPDATE - 8:16 Oklahoma just came up huge on third and goal from the 2 and forced another Missouri field goal. Mizzou has gotten some questionable pass interference calls on third down on two scoring drive so far and this game really reinforces my belief that I could never be a head coach. When a referee throws a flag for defense pass interference well after the play (as was the case on both of those pass interference calls), I would likely strike said referee with the nearest blunt object. Apparently, this is not acceptable in the coaching profession, something about assault with a deadly weapon makes some athletic departments squeamish.

UPDATE - 8:22 Is it just me or does Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel look like Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger after a horrible beekeeping accident?

UPDATE - 9:44 Pitt has West Virginia on the ropes but the officials appear to be keeping West Virginia in the game. Two bad holding calls and a no-call on obvious pass interference call has Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt fuming. Pitt has outplayed West Virginia the game and it would be a shame to see them robbed of the upset because of poor officiating but so far that appears to be the case. Elsewhere, Oklahoma scored a big touchdown to take the lead again against Missouri.

UPDATE - 9:51 All Pitt needs is a first down to pull off an enormous upset after Pat White soars the ball over the head of his receiver on 4th and long. The officials continue to be atrocious after flagging a Pitt corner for unnecessary celebration for doing absolutely nothing. ESPN announcer Mike Patrick accurately said the officials were sucking the joy out of the game. Oklahoma goes up 14 after an interception by Oklahoma linebacker Curtis Lofton lead to a Sam Bradford touchdown pass. Chase Daniel is really beginning to show his frustration. I think the BCS may need to find two new teams for its championship when the night is over.

UPDATE - 9:56 See ya, West Virginia. Pitt has done it and the Mountaineers are out of the national championship after dropping to the Panthers, a 28-point underdog, at home.

UPDATE - 10:45 Adios, Mizzou. What Oklahoma proved tonight was that Missouri was a complete fraud as the number 1 team in the country and  that Chase Daniel never belonged in the Heisman conversation with McFadden and Tebow (I would argue that McFadden does not belong in that conversation either). Oklahoma hit him early and often and Daniel folded like a cheap card table. I will give Daniel a pass on the game-changing interception, he did throw behind tight end Martin Rucker but it is hard to blame a quarterback for an interception off a deflected pass. So where does that leave us now? Presumably, Ohio State is in but who is number 2? Is it Georgia? Is it the famous undefeated-in-regulation Tigers of Louisiana State? Is it the recently resurgent Trojans? I have no idea. My hunch is that we will see Georgia in there, given that they are number four in the BCS standings at this moment but with this system, it is anyone’s guess. I will agree with Kirk Herbstreit when he said that its a shame that Mizzou will not get into a BCS bowl and Kansas will given that the Jayhawks never had to play Oklahoma. I hope that Kansas and Hawaii get put in the same bowl so I can completely avoid having to watch both teams altogether. If all of the great games today are proof of anything, it is that nothing — and I mean nothing NFL execs — beats college football.

In honor of this weekend of weekends, where it appears the stars have aligned and I will not be leaving my couch at all Saturday, I’ve decided to pick all of this weekend’s conference championship games.

MAC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP - Miami (OH) at Central Michigan - 12:00

I’ll take the defending MAC Champion Chippewas and QB Dan LeFevour in this one. LeFevour recently won the MAC Offensive Player of the Year award after setting school records for completions, attempts, yards and total offense this season. Still, the game could be interested. Miami of Ohio does possess the conference’s best passing defense, best rushing and scoring defense. The question will be if the Redhawk offense, which ranks 10th in the conference in scoring, can put points on the board. I’ll take CMU.

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP : TULSA AT UCF - 12:00 P.M.

Tulsa has one of the best offenses in the country and UCF has one of the best running backs in America. I’ll take UCF in this one for any number of reasons, not the first of which is that my girlfriend is a Knight. The game is being played in Orlando, at their new Bright House Networks Stadium on campus so for that reason alone, I’ve gotta go with George O’ Leary’s squad. Not to mention that last week, Tulsa gave up over 700 yards of total offense, 541 threw the air. This could be a shoot out and is definitely worth your time. I’ll take the formerly Golden Knights of Central Florida.

ACC Championship - Virginia Tech at Boston College - 1:00 p.m.

I’ve been on the BC bandwagon and I don’t intend to get off despite that they face off against a much better Virginia Tech team than the one the Eagles beat earlier this year in Blacksburg. I think the game will ultimately come down to how well Tyrod Taylor/Sean Glennon is able to lead the Virginia Tech offense against an underrated and fast Boston College defense. If VT is able to move the ball effectively, it could be lights out for BC’s BCS dreams but I don’t anticipate that being the case. I’ll take the Eagles in a close one.

SEC Championship - Tennessee at LSU - 4:00 p.m.

In what could be Les Miles’ last SEC game as the head coach of LSU, I’ll take the Bayou Bengals coming off a heartbreaker last week against Arkansas. Tennessee has been one of the most hideously inconsistent teams in the SEC and I don’t think that the UT offense has what it takes to hang with the hard-hitting, lightning-quick LSU defense. LSU had better get creative on offense and not rely on the Hester up the middle, Keiland Williams to the outside, Matt Flynn on QB Draw that we’ve seen too many times this year. They need to spread the field and keep the ball away from Tennessee freshman cornerback Eric Berry who makes his Atlanta homecoming Saturday. I’ll take LSU by at least 10. The Tigers are just thankful they’re not playing Georgia.

Big 12 Championship - Missouri at Oklahoma - 8:00 p.m.

There’s an awful lot riding on this game for Missouri. For Mizzou QB Chase Daniel, it’s his chance to snatch the Heisman Trophy away from Tim Tebow, who’s been sizing up a place on his mantel for it for weeks. A great performance in a win against Oklahoma and the award for the nation’s best college football player is his. Bigger than that is that Missouri is playing for the national championship Saturday night. Beat Oklahoma and they’re in. I was asked earlier today by our publisher who I liked in this one. I explained that I would have taken Oklahoma had it not been for the announcement earlier this week that Sooner running back DeMarco Murray is done for the year with a dislocated kneecaps. Murray was the team’s most consistent running back and best offensive player, save wideout Malcolm Kelly. The key for Oklahoma will be forcing turnovers and getting on top early. If Mizzou gets in an early hole, maybe 10 or 14 points, I’m not sure they can come back from that against a pretty tough Oklahoma defense. Sam Bradford’s performance is huge for the Sooners. If he gets careless and starts throwing Favre-ian interceptions, it’s over for Oklahoma and we are looking at a Missouri-West Virginia National Championship. I am going to take a flyer on Bob Stoops and the upset-minded Sooners.

Yesterday was kind of a busy day here in Destin, ran around and had a bunch of interviews for Saturday’s paper so I didn’t get a chance to post a Line or an SEC preview. Today’s Line will be stories from yesterday as well as stories from today.

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No, seriously…

Pittsburgh hospital takes a stand against crocs.

AMC doesn’t carry nickels?

Apparently life is tough when you share a name with a boy wizard.

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Is this the last year for D-Nabb in Philly?

McNabb appears to be showing promise early in training camp.

The Ocho Cinco has some money set aside for fines.

More of the Fanhouses Big Ten preview:

• Most overrated players
• Coaches on the hot seat
• Key position battles
• The five best players
• The underdogs
• Toughest schedules

Penn State QB Anthony Morelli is confident but is he overconfident?

Virginia Tech hopes football season will mark a return to normalcy.

Joe Theismann says he urged Tony Kornheiser to stick with Monday Night Football.

Eagles fans crash Cowboys training camp.

The Colts are parting ways with defensive tackle Corey Simon.

Pro d-backs put Indiana wideout James Hardy through his paces.

‘Browns insider’ says Brady Quinn’s agent is the reason rookie QB isn’t in camp yet.

Wolverine players tell Jim Harbaugh where to go over academic criticisms.

SI’s Peter King says Brady Quinn is a fool for not being in camp.

What a dope Michael Strahan is.

Joe Paterno considers staying in the press box. Consider this — retire.

Wilbon on the death of Bill Walsh.

IU to pay tribute to Coach Hep on uniforms, helmets.

Big Ten commish Jim Delaney proving once more that he really is a complete idiot.

UCF is loving their new digs.

Baton Rouge Advocate talks some LSU football.

Vince Young proves that his low Wunderlich score wasn’t a fluke; punches teammate’s helmet with throwing hand.  The Tennessean.

Tech group files complaints against sports leagues over fair use.

Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio expects the Spartans to be bowl bound in ‘07.

A nice story on the rise of Michigan true quarterback Ryan Mallett. Expect to see Mallett some playing time this season in mop-up duty. In time, I firmly believe Mallett will prove to be a much better quarterback than his rival Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen. 

The State (Columbia, S.C.) ranks the SEC quarterbacks.

The AJC’s Tony Barnhart ranks the SEC best running backs.

The NFL to produce a Vince Lombardi biopic.
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Well-rounded news…

The University of Iowa could become the first university to name one of its colleges after a corporation following a $15 million gift from Blue Cross and Blue Shield.

Disney has pulled the plug on its plans for a ‘Ratatouille’ wine.

Two-a-days are becoming a thing of the past in the NFL.

Even investment bankers love them some Facebook.

Blogger thinks new Bourne film is an attack on the Bush administration.

Wyclef says Lauryn Hill is the reason there hasn’t been a Fugees reunion.

Halo 3 to feature online multi-player co-op.

Tech blog Valleywag urges Facebook to stop counting its money and fix the site.

First season of Heroes to come out on DVD later this month. YES!

John Mayer, Dave Matthews and Nas set to play gig at Virginia Tech in September.

Cinematical reviews The Bourne Ultimatum, which I am excited beyond words to see tomorrow night.  Another review from Time Magazine.

Robert Downey, Jr. talks about playing Iron Man.

Rumors swirl over the title of J.J. Abrams’ new project. Some production stills from the set.

The Detroit Free Press interview Cold War Kids frontman Nathan Willett.

Not everyone was a fan of Rocco Dispirito’s cameo on Top Chef last night.

Entertainment Weekly wants to know who you like more: Bond or Bourne?

American Airlines will test in-flight broadband next year.