UCF vs. Mississippi State 

There may not be a better story in all of college football this year than the success of Slyvester Croom at Mississippi State. After being planted very firmly on the hot seat, Croom lead the Bulldogs to an 8-4 record with wins against Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky. As good as that story is, I can’t imagine they have what it takes to beat George O’Leary’s UCF Knights. UCF fans better enjoy watching running back Kevin Smith, the nation’s leading rusher, while they can because he won’t be running around Orlando for very much longer. What impresses me most about Smith, besides the fact that he’s averaging nearly 200 yards a game rushing, is his patience with the football. He has tremendous feet and waits for his line to open holes and cutback lanes, which they often do and he sees the field as good as any back in the nation. For my money, Kevin Smith is an exponentially better running back than Darren McFadden and deserves to be in New York this weekend as much as anyone. What I like about UCF is that as potent as they are on offense, their defense isn’t anything to shirk at either. They have a great potent cover corner in Joe Burnett, who led Conference USA in interceptions and pretty good pair of pass rushers in Bruce Miller and Leger Douzable. Pair UCF’s terrific ground game with a ball-hawking defense against a Mississippi State game with a mediocre defense and a dreadful offense and you’ve got the makings for a blow out. I’ll take the UCF in Kevin Smith’s coming out party.

Saturday, Dec. 29 - Valero Alamo Bowl 

Penn State vs. Texas A&M

Coming into the year, everyone and their brother was trumpeting Penn State as a potential Big Ten dark horse. They claimed quarterback Anthony Morelli had improved in the off-season and the Nittany Lions were ready to stake their claim as the Big Ten’s best. Not so fast, my friend.  The defense, led by corner Jeff King and linebacker Dan Connor, who led the Big Ten in tackles with 136, held up their end of the bargain, finishing second in the conference in total defense. The offense, and the “improved” Morelli struggled — again. Morelli showed the same poor judgement in the pocket, failed to get the ball into the hands of receivers Deon Butler and Derrick Williams and the team failed to beat Michigan and Ohio State again. For Texas A&M, a year of tremendous promise was upset by scandal when it was reported that Dennis Franchione was giving out inside information to boosters who paid thousands of dollars for a special newsletter. Franchione was later fired (and replaced by former Packers coach Mike Sherman) and defensive coordinator Gary Darrell will coach the Aggies in the bowl game. Offensively, Texas A&M has been one of the most disappointing teams in America. The Aggies returned a trio of the nation’s best skill players in quarterback Stephen McGee and running backs Javorski Lane and Mike Goodson. Still, A&M finished ninth in the Big 12 in total offense, a number that won’t be at all helped by going out against one of the nation’s best defensive units.  I’ll take Penn State in this one.. ugly.

Sunday, Dec. 30 - PetroSun Independence Bowl

Alabama vs. Colorado 

Two once-proud programs clash in Shreveport, La. in the Independence Bowl  and this game is a total toss-up. Both of these teams have shown flashes of re-birth this season — Alabama’s nail-biter over Arkansas and Colorado’s thriller against Oklahoma —  and have also been disappointing at times. For Dan Hawkins’ Buffs, the key to the game will be getting pressure on John Parker Wilson, who wilts like basil when the pocket collapses and getting as many people as it takes to cover receiver D.J. Hall. Nick Saban will have to make sure Wilson always knows where Colorado linebacker Jordan Dizon is lined up. The Buffs’ senior linebacker led the Big 12 with 149 tackles. Offensively, Colorado would do well to get tailback Hugh Charles 20-30 touches in this game and try to control the tempo of the game. Letting Cody Hawkins throw the ball against Simeon Castille and Rashad Johnson, who led the SEC in interceptions, could be Colorado’s downfall in this contest. Nick Saban knows that there is a lot riding on this game for Alabama. After losing all of its big games this year, including another loss to Auburn, and an embarrassing home loss to Louisiana-Monroe, a loss in their bowl game to Colorado may squelch whatever enthusiasm still remains in Tuscaloosa about Alabama football. I’ll take the Crimson Tide in this one, there is simply too much at stake for Nick Saban.

(AP Photo/Tom Strattman)

Austin Starr never pays for another meal in Bloomington ever again

I’ll get more to the Old Oaken Bucket game here in a bit but Starr’s game-winning 49-yard field goal with 30 seconds left to beat Purdue will be enough to make him a permanent fixture in the history of this series and in the history of this program for some time to come. To be able to come back onto the field, having missed a 42-yarder that would have put the game out of reach and hit the game winning kick, a career long, is unspeakably clutch.

(AP Photo/John Raoux)

Tim Tebow is this year’s Heisman trophy winner

Say what you want about Florida’s three losses coming off their national championship last year, no player in college football has been as consistently great as Tim Tebow. When Oregon’s Dennis Dixon limped off the field in the first quarter against Arizona last week, Tebow became a virtual lock to strike the pose. Basically all he had to do this week was not suck against Florida Atlantic (a team Florida has no business playing this last in the season). Well Tebow threw for 338 and three touchdowns and ran for another. I don’t know what this kid’s pro career looks like, given his awkward mechanics and playing in an offense that no NFL team runs but his college career is looking pretty bright.

(AP Photo/Butch Dill)

Alabama fans think they have 32 million reasons why they should never lose to Louisiana-Monroe — at home

Well, I think the shine is officially off the apple down in Tuscaloosa after Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide dropped a home tilt against the mighty 4-6 Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe. In Saban’s defense, in every preseason interview I saw he tried to temper expectations and warn Tide fans, frothing at the mouth for national recognition again, that this was a rebuilding process and that the team had a long way to go. All of that went out the window when they beat Arkansas (a team that has shown to be one of the SEC’s most disappointing after winning the SEC West last year) in a thriller in Tuscaloosa. I think this is a fitting loss for a man who’s karmic account balance is overdrawn and a program so willing to get back on top that they were willing to hire a snake like Saban.

(AP Photo/LM Otero)

The BCS picture is clear as mud

I can’t say I’m surprised that Oklahoma went down to Lubbock under the lights and fell to Mike Leach’s Texas Tech team. Year in and year out, Tech is one of the most explosive offense teams in America and Bob Stoops’ team just had no answer for Graham Harrell. But where does this leave the race for New Orleans and the BCS Championship? Oklahoma, it stands to reason, is out, Ohio State appears to be back in. Kansas moves to number 2 but has a tough game next week against Missouri, who have national championship hopes of their own. And then there’s LSU who is hoping that Tennessee can hang onto the SEC East so the Tigers can beat their brains out in Atlanta, instead of playing Georgia, America’s hottest team. And what about West Virginia? After losing to South Florida earlier in the year, Rich Rodriguez’s team has been consistently great. Stay tuned.

(AP Photo/Tony Ding)

Lloyd Carr is done in Ann Arbor

It’s been a heck of a run for Lloyd Carr as the head coach of Michigan but let’s face it, even if he would have beat the archrival Buckeyes (which he failed to do again, dropping his record against Jim Tressel to 1-6), Carr was on the way out. Ever since Carr’s Wolverines dropped their home opener to Appalachian State, Michigan fans had moved on. Carr had a great tenure in Ann Arbor and should be remembered, not for losing the greatest upset in college football history, but for being one of the greatest coaches in the history of one of college football’s great programs.

Les Miles better figure out a way to keep his team focused this week

With the Battle for the Golden Boot coming up this week against Arkansas in Baton Rouge, a potential trap game for LSU, it’s a bad week for Les Miles to be mentioned in connection to another head coaching job. It should come as no surprise to anyone that Michigan is giving a good, hard look at Les Miles to fill the coaching vacancy left by Lloyd Carr when he announces his retirement today. The real question will be how Miles deals with it and keeps it off the minds of his players going into a two-week stretch that will determine whether or not the Tigers play for the national championship. Miles has yet to flatly deny that he is interested in the vacancy saying that he is only focused on the job he has now and will not entertain any other offers right now. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Miles in maize and blue, and not purple and gold, by this spring.

OK, aside from the fact that this might be the single greatest photograph ever taken, there are a lot of expectations of Nick Saban in his first year at Alabama.

Alabama fans are hoping Saban can lead them back to national credibility and relevance and those who believe that Saban handled himself horribly and blatantly lied about not being interested in the ‘Bama job (I count myself among this set of people) hope he goes 6-6. While an SEC west championship definitely isn’t in the cards for the ‘07 version of the Crimson Tide, neither is a 6-6 record.

On the surface, Saban had to have felt good when he saw that he was returning 9 starters on offense having only lost starting tailback Kenneth Darby, who was a dud last year after a breakout year in ‘05, and starting fullback Le’Ron McClain. Though he returns his quarterback, depth at receiver and all five offensive lineman, he’s returning an offense that finished 9th in the conference in scoring offense and struggled to score in the red zone. Not to mention returning an offensive line that struggled to protect John Parker Wilson last year and struggled to contact the line of scrimmage.

Saban and Tide fans are hoping John Parker Wilson learns from an inconsistent year last year where at times he looked both brilliant and frazzled throwing 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions but scrambled effectively and held up well under pressure (except against Florida). Running back by committee will be the name of the game for the Tide who will see junior Jimmy Johns (wonderful sandwiches, by the way, the Turkey tom? Very tasty.), sophomores Glen Coffee and Ali Sharrief and redshirt freshman Roy Upchurch all potentially seeing time in the backfield this season.

At wideout, Alabama returns arguably the best receiver duo in the conference with D.J. Hall and Keith Brown. The unit does, however, need a quality third receiver to emerge from junior Will Oakley, senior Matt Caddell and junior Nikita Stover.

Though the offensive line returns all five starters, Saban could choose to infuse some new blood into a unit that showed some matador-like tendancies in pass protection season. This unit must do a better job of controlling the line of scrimmage in the running game and protecting John Parker Wilson if this offense is going to be more successful putting the ball in the end zone than it was last year.

Though the team returns starting defensive ends Wallace Gilberry and Bobby Greenwood, the rest of the Tide’s defensive line is relatively shallow and will need some young players to grow up quickly. With the switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4, Nick Saban will need to find a solid rotation of versatile linebackers and outside of sophomore Prince Hall, the only returning starter, they don’t appear to be there. Secure at the corners, returning senior Simeon Castille, who proved to be one of the conference’s most dangerous d-backs with six interceptions and three fumble recoveries, and junior Lionel Mitchell, the Tide will lean on free safety Rashad Johnson and strong safety Marcus Carter to shore up the unit. The Tide could be tough against the pass this year, if they can muster a pass rush.

All season Saban will be chasing that signature win. I don’t think he has a snowball’s chance of beating LSU, they won’t be able to stop Darren McFadden and Felix, they could be tough against Tennessee but I think Saban will most likely pick off Georgia. With a blitz package and a confident veteran defensive backfield, Saban will pressure Matthew Stafford into making bad decisions and throwing some reckless INTs given the sophomore quarterback’s penchant for doing so, I’d say this is not out of the question.

Bottom Line Prediction: 8-4. I see the Tide losing at home against Tennessee, Georgia and Arkansas and dropping the neutral site game in Jacksonville against Florida State. I’m counting on Saban to knock off Georgia and Auburn in the Iron Bowl but both of those games are easily losable and if they do, they’ll be… wait for… 6-6.