Bottom Line on… Alabama
August 7th, 2007, 7:30 am · Post a Comment · posted by patrickdonohue
OK, aside from the fact that this might be the single greatest photograph ever taken, there are a lot of expectations of Nick Saban in his first year at Alabama.
Alabama fans are hoping Saban can lead them back to national credibility and relevance and those who believe that Saban handled himself horribly and blatantly lied about not being interested in the ‘Bama job (I count myself among this set of people) hope he goes 6-6. While an SEC west championship definitely isn’t in the cards for the ‘07 version of the Crimson Tide, neither is a 6-6 record.
On the surface, Saban had to have felt good when he saw that he was returning 9 starters on offense having only lost starting tailback Kenneth Darby, who was a dud last year after a breakout year in ‘05, and starting fullback Le’Ron McClain. Though he returns his quarterback, depth at receiver and all five offensive lineman, he’s returning an offense that finished 9th in the conference in scoring offense and struggled to score in the red zone. Not to mention returning an offensive line that struggled to protect John Parker Wilson last year and struggled to contact the line of scrimmage.
Saban and Tide fans are hoping John Parker Wilson learns from an inconsistent year last year where at times he looked both brilliant and frazzled throwing 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions but scrambled effectively and held up well under pressure (except against Florida). Running back by committee will be the name of the game for the Tide who will see junior Jimmy Johns (wonderful sandwiches, by the way, the Turkey tom? Very tasty.), sophomores Glen Coffee and Ali Sharrief and redshirt freshman Roy Upchurch all potentially seeing time in the backfield this season.
At wideout, Alabama returns arguably the best receiver duo in the conference with D.J. Hall and Keith Brown. The unit does, however, need a quality third receiver to emerge from junior Will Oakley, senior Matt Caddell and junior Nikita Stover.
Though the offensive line returns all five starters, Saban could choose to infuse some new blood into a unit that showed some matador-like tendancies in pass protection season. This unit must do a better job of controlling the line of scrimmage in the running game and protecting John Parker Wilson if this offense is going to be more successful putting the ball in the end zone than it was last year.
Though the team returns starting defensive ends Wallace Gilberry and Bobby Greenwood, the rest of the Tide’s defensive line is relatively shallow and will need some young players to grow up quickly. With the switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4, Nick Saban will need to find a solid rotation of versatile linebackers and outside of sophomore Prince Hall, the only returning starter, they don’t appear to be there. Secure at the corners, returning senior Simeon Castille, who proved to be one of the conference’s most dangerous d-backs with six interceptions and three fumble recoveries, and junior Lionel Mitchell, the Tide will lean on free safety Rashad Johnson and strong safety Marcus Carter to shore up the unit. The Tide could be tough against the pass this year, if they can muster a pass rush.
All season Saban will be chasing that signature win. I don’t think he has a snowball’s chance of beating LSU, they won’t be able to stop Darren McFadden and Felix, they could be tough against Tennessee but I think Saban will most likely pick off Georgia. With a blitz package and a confident veteran defensive backfield, Saban will pressure Matthew Stafford into making bad decisions and throwing some reckless INTs given the sophomore quarterback’s penchant for doing so, I’d say this is not out of the question.
Bottom Line Prediction: 8-4. I see the Tide losing at home against Tennessee, Georgia and Arkansas and dropping the neutral site game in Jacksonville against Florida State. I’m counting on Saban to knock off Georgia and Auburn in the Iron Bowl but both of those games are easily losable and if they do, they’ll be… wait for… 6-6.
